Demand Pulse Experimental
How strong is the appetite for large durable goods? — جستجوی خرید خودرو، خرید خانه، اجاره خانه، و میانگین سبد پنج کالای بادوام.
Percentile rank for week starting 18 Oct among 47 recent weeks; composite z -0.66. 2 Component up and 1 component down.
Components
| Component | Direction | Raw value | Prior week | z This week | z Prior week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Search for “buy car” | + | 45.00 | 47.00 | -0.47 | -0.31 | Down |
| Search for “buy house” | + | 22.00 | 22.00 | -0.61 | -0.61 | — |
| Search for “rent house” | + | 24.00 | 23.00 | -0.50 | -0.71 | Up |
| goods_basket | + | 37.00 | 35.40 | -1.34 | -1.83 | Up |
Each component is standardized (z) to the mean and standard deviation of this window, with a sign so “+” always means more of what the index measures. Index = simple mean of z’s, smoothed with a 3-week moving average, then percentile-ranked in the same window. Because mean and SD come from the whole window, past weeks are redefined as new weeks arrive — an in-sample view, not a signal that was available in real time; the lab’s own log below is what was actually shown each day.
Does this index say anything about the weeks ahead?
| Target | Best lead (weeks) | r | p | Out-of-sample direction accuracy | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| بازده هفتگی طلا | 2 | -0.23 | 0.134 | 53٪ (n=17) | descriptive |
Test: correlation of the index composite with subsequent weekly returns (leads of 1–4 weeks) and direction accuracy on the final 40% of data that did not choose the lead. “Descriptive” means the index summarizes the present but showed no predictive power in this test — and is labeled that way, not as a forecast.