Consumer Pressure Experimental
How hard are households looking for liquidity and credit? — جستجوی وام، قسط، فروش طلا، کاریابی و گرانی.
Percentile rank for week starting 18 Oct among 46 recent weeks; composite z -0.50. 4 Component up and 1 component down.
Components
| Component | Direction | Raw value | Prior week | z This week | z Prior week | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Search for “loan” | + | 30.00 | 31.00 | -1.34 | -1.19 | Down |
| Search for “instalment” | + | 71.00 | 47.00 | 1.41 | -1.16 | Up |
| Search for “sell gold” | + | 42.00 | 40.00 | -0.37 | -0.53 | Up |
| Search for “job seeking” | + | 35.00 | 34.00 | -0.64 | -0.76 | Up |
| Search for “expensive” | + | 41.00 | 39.00 | -0.17 | -0.29 | Up |
Each component is standardized (z) to the mean and standard deviation of this window, with a sign so “+” always means more of what the index measures. Index = simple mean of z’s, smoothed with a 3-week moving average, then percentile-ranked in the same window. Because mean and SD come from the whole window, past weeks are redefined as new weeks arrive — an in-sample view, not a signal that was available in real time; the lab’s own log below is what was actually shown each day.
Does this index say anything about the weeks ahead?
| Target | Best lead (weeks) | r | p | Out-of-sample direction accuracy | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| بازده هفتگی طلا | 3 | -0.15 | 0.348 | 50٪ (n=16) | descriptive |
Test: correlation of the index composite with subsequent weekly returns (leads of 1–4 weeks) and direction accuracy on the final 40% of data that did not choose the lead. “Descriptive” means the index summarizes the present but showed no predictive power in this test — and is labeled that way, not as a forecast.