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نقطه سربه‌سر تبلیغات

بودجه، هزینهٔ هر کلیک یا نمایش، نرخ تبدیل و حاشیهٔ سود را وارد کنید تا ببینید کمپین از چه نرخ تبدیلی به بعد سربه‌سر می‌شود و ROAS لازم چقدر است.

How much must each ad campaign sell to cover its own cost?

  • چند عدد در فرم
  • روی سرور سایت
  • بدون هوش مصنوعی

Problem it solves

“This campaign had ROAS of three” still does not say profit or loss. Advertising pays for itself when cost per order is less than the profit that order generates before ads—and that profit is contribution margin, not selling price.

This tool uses average order value and contribution margin to compute campaign red lines: maximum affordable cost per order (CPO) and per new customer (CAC), breakeven ROAS, maximum cost per click at your conversion rate, and how many orders spend the budget at breakeven. If you also enter actual current campaign cost, you see its profit or loss. Repeat purchase by new customers is entered only as a hypothesis of your choice.

Inputs

Amount input unit

If you choose Rial, all amounts are divided by 10 before calculation and results are shown in Toman.

Order and profit margin

Contribution margin is what remains from each order after cost of goods, shipping, fees and returns — before ad spend. If you do not know it, the "true order profit" tool calculates it.

Average amount the customer pays per order, after discount. (to Toman)

Percent of order value left after all variable costs. Zero or negative means no breakeven. (Percent)

Campaign

All three are optional; the more you provide, the more outputs are defined.

E.g. 1.8 orders per 100 clicks → 1.8. Required for maximum cost per click. (Percent)

So you can see how many orders exhaust the budget at the breakeven point. (to Toman)

What share of campaign orders come from first-time buyers. For maximum new-customer acquisition cost (CAC). (Percent)

Show advanced settings (Margin as an amount, actual current campaign cost, repeat-purchase assumption)
Margin as an amount

If you know contribution profit per order as an amount instead of a percent, enter it here and leave the percent blank.

Fill in only one of the two margin forms. (to Toman)

Current campaign

Ad spend divided by that campaign’s orders; for comparison with breakeven and to see profit or loss.

Total ad spend ÷ number of orders attributed to it. (to Toman)

Repeat purchases (hypothesis)

Customer lifetime value is not assumed without valid data. This section is only a hypothesis you state, shown separately from the main figures.

Off by default. Turning it on adds a separate section labelled "hypothesis" to the result; the main figures do not change.

How many further orders do you expect each new customer to place after the first purchase? Decimals are allowed (e.g. 1.5).

Assumption for clarity only; does not affect the calculation.

Leave blank to take it as equal to contribution profit on the first order. (to Toman)

Use example Start over

Result

All amounts in tomans. All figures are based on contribution profit before advertising, not net profit.

  • 384,000 toman max affordable cost per order (CPO)
  • 640,000 Toman — maximum acquisition cost per new customer (CAC)
  • 3.13 Breakeven ROAS (revenue ÷ ad spend) — a floor, not a target
  • 6,912 toman max cost per click (CPC) at the conversion rate 1.8%
  • 53 Orders to spend the budget at breakeven (2,894 clicks) — Rounded up; exact figure in the table below
  • 62,500,000 Toman of campaign revenue at breakeven

Breakeven ROAS is the minimum revenue-to-ad-spend ratio at which the campaign neither profits nor loses; ROAS is not profit, and your profitability target should be above breakeven because fixed costs are not yet covered.

These figures are based on contribution profit before advertising, not net profit: fixed costs (rent, payroll, warehouse, …) are not included.

Customer lifetime value is not assumed without valid data; the figures above reflect only this campaign’s orders.

Exact definition of each figure

IndexValueDefinition and formula
Contribution profit per order (before ads) +384,000 What remains from each order after all variable costs and can be spent on advertising. Order value × contribution margin
Maximum affordable cost per order (CPO) 384,000 If you spend more than this on ads per order, that order loses money. = contribution profit per order
Maximum acquisition cost per new customer (CAC) 640,000 When only a share of orders are from new customers and the whole budget is attributed to acquiring them. Without a new-customer share, equal to CPO. Max CPO ÷ new-customer share
Break-even ROAS 3.13 Minimum revenue-to-ad-spend ratio; ROAS = revenue ÷ ad spend. Below that is a loss; above it is not necessarily net profit. Order value ÷ contribution profit per order
Maximum affordable cost per click (CPC) 6,912 At the current conversion rate, each click (or visit) is worth at most this much. Max CPO × conversion rate
Orders needed to spend the budget at break-even 52.1 If every order costs exactly the max CPO, the budget is exhausted after this many orders. Budget ÷ max CPO
Clicks needed at break-even 2,893.5 Number of clicks that, at the current conversion rate, reach that order count. Required orders ÷ conversion rate
Campaign revenue at break-even 62,500,000 Value of the orders the budget produces at breakeven. Budget × break-even ROAS
New customers at breakeven 31.3 Share of break-even orders that are from new customers. Orders needed × new-customer share

Where each toman of order value goes

Share of variable costs and maximum ad share of order value; the list below the chart has the same figures Cost of goods and variable costs: 68.0%Maximum ad share (contribution profit before ads): 32.0%
  1. Cost of goods and variable costs 68.0% 816,000
  2. Maximum ad share (contribution profit before ads) 32.0% 384,000

At break-even, the entire green share goes to advertising; break-even ROAS is 100 ÷ green percentage.

Sensitivity: max CPC when contribution margin changes by ±5 percentage points and conversion rate by ±30%

Each cell is the maximum affordable cost, with the difference from the current state below it. A “—” cell means that combination has zero or negative margin and no breakeven.

Margin ↓ / conversion rate → Conversion −30%Conversion −15%Conversion UnchangedConversion +15%Conversion +30%
Margin 27.0% (−5 units) 4,082 −2,830 4,957 −1,955 5,832 −1,080 6,707 −205 7,582 +670
Margin 29.5% (−2.5 units) 4,460 −2,452 5,416 −1,496 6,372 −540 7,328 +416 8,284 +1,372
Margin 32.0% (Current) 4,838 −2,074 5,875 −1,037 6,912 Current 7,949 +1,037 8,986 +2,074
Margin 34.5% (+2.5 units) 5,216 −1,696 6,334 −578 7,452 +540 8,570 +1,658 9,688 +2,776
Margin 37.0% (+5 units) 5,594 −1,318 6,793 −119 7,992 +1,080 9,191 +2,279 10,390 +3,478
Assumptions of this calculation
  • Contribution margin is the share of order value left after cost of goods, shipping, packaging, fees, and returns — before advertising cost.
  • All campaign orders are attributed to that ad; orders that would have come without the ad are not separated out.
  • The maximum cost to acquire a new customer (CAC) assumes the entire budget is spent acquiring new customers and that orders from existing customers in the same campaign also result from that advertising.
  • ROAS = revenue (order value) ÷ ad spend; break-even ROAS = 1 ÷ contribution margin. ROAS is not profit, and break-even ROAS is not a profitability target.
  • Conversion rate applies to the same unit you pay for (click or visit); maximum CPC applies to that same unit.
  • Customer lifetime value is not assumed without solid data; the repeat-purchase section enters the calculation only if you turn it on, as a hypothesis, and its result is shown separately from the main figures.
  • Fixed costs (rent, salaries, warehouse, …) are in none of these figures; ad break-even means the ad pays for itself, not that the business has net profit.
Input sheets, results (with formulas that recalculate when inputs change), and method. The file is built and sent immediately and is not kept on the server.

Calculation method and assumptions

  • Contribution profit per order (before ads) = average order value × contribution margin. If you give an amount in advanced settings instead of a percentage, that amount is used.
  • Maximum affordable cost per order (CPO) = contribution profit per order. That means if you spend more than this on ads to win an order, that order loses money.
  • Maximum cost to acquire each new customer (CAC) = max CPO ÷ share of new-customer orders. Assumption: the whole budget goes to acquiring new customers, and returning customers' orders in the same campaign are also attributed to that ad. If you do not give the new-customer share, max CAC equals max CPO and the page says so.
  • ROAS = revenue (order value) ÷ ad spend. Breakeven ROAS = average order value ÷ contribution profit per order, i.e. 1 ÷ margin. This figure is a floor, not a target: at breakeven ROAS, ads only recover their own cost and no profit remains.
  • Maximum cost per click (CPC) = max CPO × conversion rate. Only when you have given a conversion rate; the conversion rate is on the same unit you pay for (click or visit).
  • Orders needed to spend the budget at breakeven = budget ÷ max CPO. Clicks needed = orders needed ÷ conversion rate. Campaign revenue at breakeven = budget × breakeven ROAS.
  • Profit or loss at actual cost per order (actual CPO): each order = contribution profit − actual CPO; whole campaign = that × (budget ÷ actual CPO).
  • The sensitivity table varies margin by ±5 percentage points (steps of 2.5) and conversion rate by ±30% relative (steps of 15) and shows max CPC in each combination; without a conversion rate, only max CPO by margin.
  • Zero or negative margin: there is no break-even point; you see a warning instead of a figure. No division by zero is performed.
  • Customer lifetime value is not assumed without valid data. If you turn on "repeat purchase assumption", repeat value = extra orders per new customer × contribution profit per repeat order is added to max CAC (and to max CPO, in proportion to the new-customer share) — in a separate section labelled "hypothesis"; the main figures do not change.
  • Rounding (half up): amounts with no decimals, percentages and order/click counts with one decimal, ROAS with two. Order and click counts in the top summary are rounded up so the budget is fully spent; exact values are in the definitions table. The Excel file uses full formulas without rounding.

Limitations and misuse

  • None of these figures is net profit. Ad breakeven means the ads pay for themselves; fixed costs (rent, salaries, warehouse, …) are still uncovered. ROAS is not profit either: it is revenue over ad spend.
  • Do not set breakeven ROAS as your campaign target; the target should be high enough to cover a share of fixed costs and profit too.
  • Contribution margin must truly be after cost of goods, shipping, packaging, fees and returns. If you enter gross margin (only after cost of goods), the red lines become optimistic. The "true order profit" tool gives the right figure.
  • The tool attributes all campaign orders to that ad. Orders that would have come without ads (brand search, regular customers) are not separated; the true ad effect is usually lower than the platform report figure.
  • Customer lifetime value is not assumed without valid data. The "repeat purchase" section is only a hypothesis you state; until you have data on actual new-customer behavior (for example from RFM analysis), base decisions on the primary figures.
  • Conversion rate and new-customer share should come from your own data; example figures are hypothetical.
  • This tool is a calculator, not advice: no figure recommends budget, investment, or ad channel choice.

راهنمای این ابزار

پیش از خرج‌کردن بودجهٔ تبلیغ، سقف هزینه را بدانید: برای هر سفارش، هر کلیک و هر مشتری تازه تا کجا می‌توانید خرج کنید که تبلیغ زیان ندهد.

این عددها را چطور بخوانم؟
  • حداکثر هزینهٔ هر سفارش (CPO): اگر برای گرفتن یک سفارش بیشتر از این خرج تبلیغ کنید، همان سفارش زیان می‌دهد.
  • حداکثر هزینهٔ جذب هر مشتری جدید (CAC): همان سقف، برای هر کسی که بار اول می‌خرد. اگر سهم مشتری جدید را نداده باشید، با عدد قبلی یکی است.
  • ROAS سربه‌سر: فروش تقسیم بر هزینهٔ تبلیغ، در نقطه‌ای که تبلیغ فقط خرج خودش را درمی‌آورد. ROAS کمپین شما باید از این بیشتر باشد؛ برابر بودن با آن یعنی سود صفر.
  • حداکثر هزینهٔ هر کلیک (CPC): با نرخ تبدیل شما، هر کلیک حداکثر این‌قدر می‌ارزد. آن را با هزینهٔ هر کلیک در گزارش پلتفرم تبلیغ مقایسه کنید.
  • سفارش لازم در سربه‌سر: اگر بودجه با کمتر از این تعداد سفارش تمام شود، کمپین زیان داده است.
  • جدول «کمپین فعلی در برابر نقطهٔ سربه‌سر»: سود یا زیان هر سفارش و کل کمپین، با هزینهٔ واقعی‌ای که وارد کرده‌اید.
  • بخش «فرضیه» فقط وقتی می‌آید که خودتان روشنش کرده باشید. تا از خرید دوبارهٔ مشتری‌ها دادهٔ واقعی ندارید، به عددهای اصلی تکیه کنید.
با این نتیجه چه چیزی را بررسی کنم؟
  1. هزینهٔ هر کلیک و هر سفارش را از گزارش پلتفرم تبلیغ بردارید و با سقف‌های این ابزار مقایسه کنید.
  2. حاشیه‌ای را که وارد کرده‌اید بازبینی کنید: ارسال، بسته‌بندی، کارمزد و مرجوعی از آن کم شده است؟
  3. ببینید چند سفارش بدون تبلیغ هم می‌آمد؛ این ابزار همهٔ سفارش‌های کمپین را به حساب تبلیغ می‌گذارد.
  4. برای فرض خرید دوباره، رفتار واقعی مشتری‌ها را با ابزار «تحلیل RFM مشتریان» ببینید.
این ابزار برای چه کسی است و چه داده‌ای می‌خواهد؟
  • کسی که برای فروش تبلیغ می‌کند و هزینهٔ تبلیغ و تعداد سفارش را می‌بیند.
  • باید بدانید از هر سفارش، پیش از هزینهٔ تبلیغ، چند درصد می‌ماند. اگر نمی‌دانید، اول ابزار «سود واقعی سفارش» را پر کنید.
  • برای تبلیغی که هدفش فروش مستقیم نیست، مثل معرفی برند، مناسب نیست.
  • میانگین مبلغ هر سفارش: جمع فروش یک دوره تقسیم بر تعداد سفارش همان دوره؛ از پنل فروشگاه.
  • حاشیهٔ پیش از تبلیغ: از ابزار «سود واقعی سفارش»، با خانهٔ تبلیغِ خالی.
  • نرخ تبدیل: تعداد سفارش تقسیم بر تعداد کلیک؛ از گزارش پلتفرم تبلیغ یا آمار سایت.
  • بودجه و هزینهٔ واقعی هر سفارش: از صورت‌حساب تبلیغ و تعداد سفارش‌هایی که از همان تبلیغ آمده.
  • سهم مشتری جدید: از فهرست سفارش‌ها؛ چند درصد خریدارها بار اولشان است.
هر ورودی یعنی چه؟
Average order value (AOV)
به‌طور میانگین مشتری در هر سفارش، پس از تخفیف، چقدر می‌پردازد.
Pre-ad contribution margin — percent of order value
از مبلغ هر سفارش، پس از همهٔ هزینه‌های همان سفارش و پیش از تبلیغ، چند درصد می‌ماند.
Conversion rate — % of clicks (or visits) that become orders
از هر ۱۰۰ کلیک چند تا به سفارش می‌رسد.
Campaign ad budget
کل پولی که برای این کمپین کنار گذاشته‌اید.
Share of new-customer orders — percent
چند درصد سفارش‌های کمپین از کسانی است که بار اول می‌خرند.
Contribution profit per order — amount (instead of percentage)
همان حاشیه، به تومان به‌جای درصد. فقط یکی از این دو را پر کنید.
Actual cost per order (CPO) in the current campaign
در کمپین فعلی هر سفارش چقدر خرج تبلیغ داشته: هزینهٔ تبلیغ تقسیم بر تعداد سفارش.
Include repeat-purchase assumption in the calculation (hypothesis)
اگر تیک بزنید، خریدهای بعدی مشتری جدید هم حساب می‌شود؛ در بخشی جدا و با برچسب «فرضیه». عددهای اصلی تغییر نمی‌کنند.
Extra orders per new customer
فرض می‌کنید هر مشتری جدید، پس از خرید اول، چند بار دیگر می‌خرد.
Over how many months
این خریدها در چند ماه انجام می‌شود. فقط در نتیجه نوشته می‌شود و در محاسبه اثری ندارد.
Contribution profit per repeat order
از هر خرید بعدی چقدر می‌ماند. خالی بماند، برابر خرید اول گرفته می‌شود.
از این نتیجه چه چیزی را نمی‌توان فهمید؟
  • نمی‌گوید کمپین چند سفارش می‌آورد؛ فقط سقف هزینه را نشان می‌دهد.
  • سود خالص نیست؛ هزینه‌های ثابت مثل اجاره و حقوق در آن نیست.
  • سفارش‌هایی را که بدون تبلیغ هم می‌آمدند جدا نمی‌کند.
  • ارزش خریدهای بعدی مشتری را اندازه نمی‌گیرد؛ آن بخش فقط فرض خود شماست.
  • هیچ عددی پیشنهادِ بودجه یا انتخاب محل تبلیغ نیست.

قدم بعدی و ابزارهای مرتبط

RESOURCES برنامه‌ریزی آزمایش اثربخشی تبلیغات · قالب داشبورد بازاریابی و فروش

Formula version and date

VERSION Formula version 1.0 · Last changed: 19 September 2026