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اندازهٔ بازار استانی

استان‌ها و دهک‌های درآمدی هدف را انتخاب کنید و فرض‌های خودتان را دربارهٔ نفوذ و خرج سالانه وارد کنید؛ جمعیت هر استان و برآورد جمعیت کشور را خود سایت می‌آورد.

How many toman a year is my product worth in the target provinces and income deciles?

  • چند عدد در فرم
  • روی سرور، با دادهٔ سایت
  • بدون هوش مصنوعی

Problem it solves

“How big is our market?” is usually answered with a round number nobody can source. This tool builds that number, but keeps every part separate: what is data and what is your assumption.

The site supplies each province's population and the national population estimate. You enter income decile, household size, penetration rate and annual spend — and the result prints all these assumptions next to the figure so you can debate them.

Inputs

Amount input unit

If you choose Rial, all amounts are divided by 10 before calculation and results are shown in Toman.

Target market

Provinces and income deciles that buy your product. Each decile is one-tenth of households.

None = all provinces

Decile 1 is the lowest-income and decile 10 the highest-income. None = all households.

Purchase behaviour

These three figures are your assumptions, not this site's data — and they have the largest effect on the result.

Your share of target households, not of the whole market. (Percent)

How much a buying household spends on this category in a year. (to Toman)

1 means these deciles spend at the average; 2 means twice as much. This is your assumption—decile income data with redistribution rights is not available to this site.

Show advanced settings (Household size)
Household

The atlas has population, not households; household size is needed to go from people to households.

Use example Start over

Result

Estimate, not official statistics All amounts in toman and for one year.

  • 8,710,786,420,364 Toman annual market in selected provinces
  • 1,008,178 Estimated buyer households
  • 92,417,680 people in selected provinces
  • 30.0% Target deciles’ share of households

این عدد «برآورد» است، نه آمار رسمی: جمعیت و سهم استان‌ها داده‌اند، ولی بُعد خانوار، دهک هدف، ضریب خرج و نرخ نفوذ فرض‌های شمایند.

دهک یعنی یک‌دهم خانوارها. این حساب، «چند خانوار» را از دهک می‌گیرد و «چقدر خرج» را از شما — چون داده‌ٔ درآمد دهکی با مجوز بازنشر در دسترس این سایت نیست.

Province by province

Province Estimated population Household Target households Purchasing households Annual market (toman)
Tehran 15,290,095 4,633,362 1,390,008 166,801 1,441,160,954,182
Razavi Khorasan 7,395,434 2,241,040 672,312 80,677 697,053,270,109
Isfahan 5,894,313 1,786,155 535,846 64,301 555,565,792,582
Fars 5,628,059 1,705,472 511,641 61,397 530,470,142,836
Khuzestan 5,422,630 1,643,221 492,966 59,155 511,107,525,818
East Azerbaijan 4,504,513 1,365,003 409,501 49,140 424,570,825,309
Mazandaran 3,789,529 1,148,342 344,502 41,340 357,180,333,382
West Azerbaijan 3,761,985 1,139,995 341,998 41,039 354,584,186,182
Kerman 3,654,107 1,107,305 332,191 39,862 344,416,194,327
Sistan and Baluchestan 3,187,014 965,761 289,728 34,767 300,390,555,927
Alborz 3,133,075 949,416 284,825 34,179 295,306,560,000
Gilan 2,921,908 885,426 265,628 31,875 275,403,110,400
Kermanshah 2,298,736 696,586 208,976 25,077 216,666,316,800
Golestan 2,172,495 658,331 197,499 23,699 204,767,528,727
Hormozgan 2,072,650 628,075 188,422 22,610 195,356,683,636
Lorestan 2,047,401 620,424 186,127 22,335 192,976,850,618
Hamadan 2,015,267 610,686 183,206 21,984 189,948,075,055
Kurdistan 1,852,302 561,303 168,391 20,206 174,587,883,055
Markazi 1,648,020 499,400 149,820 17,978 155,333,376,000
Qom 1,491,941 452,103 135,631 16,275 140,622,220,800
Qazvin 1,473,578 446,538 133,961 16,075 138,891,424,582
Ardabil 1,473,578 446,538 133,961 16,075 138,891,424,582
Bushehr 1,347,337 408,283 122,485 14,698 126,992,636,509
Yazd 1,326,679 402,023 120,607 14,472 125,045,526,109
Zanjan 1,265,854 383,592 115,077 13,809 119,312,493,382
Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari 1,116,660 338,381 101,514 12,181 105,250,280,727
North Khorasan 996,157 301,865 90,559 10,867 93,892,325,236
South Khorasan 902,050 273,348 82,004 9,840 85,022,312,727
Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad 835,487 253,177 75,953 9,114 78,748,447,418
Semnan 820,567 248,656 74,597 8,951 77,342,169,600
Ilam 678,259 205,533 61,659 7,399 63,928,993,745

If you target more deciles

Number of decilesShare of householdsAnnual market (toman)
110.0%2,903,595,473,455
220.0%5,807,190,946,909
330.0%8,710,786,420,364
440.0%11,614,381,893,818
550.0%14,517,977,367,273
660.0%17,421,572,840,727
770.0%20,325,168,314,182
880.0%23,228,763,787,636
990.0%26,132,359,261,091
10100.0%29,035,954,734,545

If you change the decile spending factor

This table shows how much of the answer depends on a number you assumed yourself.

Spend factorAnnual market (toman)
0.52,419,627,200,000
1.04,839,254,400,000
1.57,258,881,600,000
2.09,678,508,800,000
3.014,517,763,200,000
Assumptions this figure rests on
  • بُعد خانوار: 3.3
  • دهک‌های هدف: 8، 9، 10 (30٪ خانوارها)
  • ضریب خرج دهک: 1.8
  • سهم استان‌ها از تفکیک استانی همین سایت و جمعیت کشور از بانک جهانی است.
Input sheets, results (with formulas that recalculate when inputs change), and method. The file is built and sent immediately and is not kept on the server.

Calculation method and assumptions

  • Population of each province = that province’s share of national population × national population estimate. Shares come from this site’s provincial breakdown and the national estimate from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0).
  • Why share and not the raw province figure: the sum of provincial breakdown figures is less than today's national population estimate, because that breakdown belongs to an older period. Each province's share is more stable than its absolute figure, so the tool works on shares.
  • Household count = provincial population ÷ household size. The atlas has people, not households.
  • Target households = household count × selected deciles’ share. Each decile is one-tenth of households—this is decile arithmetic, not a claim about Iran.
  • Market size = target households × penetration rate × annual spend per household × decile spending factor.
  • Two sensitivity tables: one shows how the figure changes when you pick more or fewer income deciles, the other with the spend factor — because those two assumptions drive most of the result.

Limitations and misuse

  • This is an estimate, not official statistics. No agency published this figure; you supplied the assumptions and the tool multiplied.
  • Decile income data is not available on this site: the Statistical Centre of Iran portal's terms make redistribution and automated fetch subject to written permission. So "how many households" comes from the decile definition and "how much spend" comes from you — and no income figure is attributed to you.
  • Income distribution differs by province; this tool assumes the same decile shares in all selected provinces. If Tehran differs from Sistan and Baluchestan, calculate provinces separately.
  • The output is "potential market", not forecast sales: competition, distribution, brand strength and price elasticity are not in it.
  • This tool is a calculator, not advice; no figure is investment advice.

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Formula version and date

VERSION Formula version 1.0 · Last changed: 24 September 2026