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Ramin Khavarzadeh DATA · ANALYSIS · PERSPECTIVE
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Data LAB

Data lab

Indices we build from public data, what looked unusual versus its own baseline this week, and relationships we tested among series — including rejects, not only hits.

INDICES

This week’s proprietary indices

Week starting ۳ آبان · computed from 43 Weekly series · Methodology

Consumer Pressure Consumer Pressure
Experimental
8 -2 vs last week
Week starting 18 Oct 4 of 5 components worsened

How hard are households looking for liquidity and credit?
Demand Pulse Demand Pulse
Experimental
7 -4 vs last week
Week starting 18 Oct 2 of 4 Component rose

How strong is the appetite for large durable goods?

Each index is 0–100: this week’s percentile rank among 52 past weeks. 50 means a typical week; 100 means the strongest week in this window. All are descriptive experiments — not forecasts. Consumer Pressure · Demand Pulse

WHAT CHANGED

What changed this week?

Series that, in the latest complete week, moved at least 1.5 standard deviations from their prior 12-week mean — 8 of 35

  1. Search Search for “loan” −20% z -2.2
  2. Search Search for “rent house” −23% z -1.9
  3. Search Search for “visa” −26% z -1.8
  4. Search Search for “fridge” −17% z -1.8
  5. derived Durable goods basket −9% z -1.7
  6. Search Search for “buy car” −12% z -1.6
  7. derived Weekly equity-index return -6.6 units z -1.6
  8. derived Weekly 18k gold return -6.1 units z -1.5
SIGNALS WE FOUND

Signals we found Experimental

Lagged cross-correlation, corrected for every pair and every lag tested (217 Test)، With out-of-sample validation. Correlation, not causation.

Weak signals and relationships not found
BRAND SEARCH

Iranian brand search interest

Each brand’s figure is relative to that brand’s own highest week in the past 12 months (100 = its own peak search week) — not a sentiment score, only relative search volume. Brands are compared only to their own baseline, not to each other, because each group is normalised in a separate Google request.

#BrandSegment12-week trendThis weekWeekly change
1 Iran Khodro Auto 20 +185.7٪
2 Mahan Air Airlines 2 +100.0٪
3 Alibaba App 6 +50.0٪
4 Iran Air Airlines 5 +25.0٪
5 Torob 12-month high App 91 +21.3٪
6 Hamrah-e Aval Telecom 14 +16.7٪
7 Golrang Food 10 -16.7٪
8 Shahrvand Chain retail 11 -15.4٪
9 Basalam App 26 +13.0٪
10 Snapp App 31 +10.7٪
11 Kaleh Food 37 +8.8٪
12 Bank Saman Bank 69 +6.2٪
13 Filimo Media 38 +5.6٪
14 Rightel Telecom 45 +4.7٪
15 Ofogh Kourosh Chain retail 28 +3.7٪
16 Bank Pasargad Bank 62 -3.1٪
17 Mihan Food 42 +2.4٪
18 Divar App 82 -1.2٪
19 Irancell Telecom 12 0.0٪
20 Bank Melli Bank 11 0.0٪
21 Tapsi 12-month high App 3 0.0٪
22 Saipa Auto 6 0.0٪
23 Bank Mellat Bank 10 0.0٪
24 Bank Saderat Bank 4 0.0٪
25 Hyperstar 12-month low Chain retail 2 0.0٪
26 Refah 12-month low Chain retail 3 0.0٪
27 Namava Media 4 0.0٪
28 Delpazir Food 5 0.0٪
29 Tak Macaron 12-month low Food 1 0.0٪
30 Choopan 12-month high Food 0 —
OVERLAY

Two series overlaid, with lag

Both series are converted to z-scores; the first is shifted by the optimal lag so co-movement is visible.

METHOD Each index is built from public series with thresholds set in advance. Relationships are reported with correction for all pairs and lags tested, and correlation never means causation. Full methodology

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